Those are among the findings of an Associated Press survey late last month of leading economists. The economists think the unemployment rate will fall from its current 8.3 percent to 8 percent by Election Day. That's better than their 8.4 percent estimate when surveyed in late December.
By the end of 2013, they predict unemployment will drop to 7.4 percent, down from their earlier estimate of 7.8 percent, according to the AP Economy Survey.
The U.S. economy has been improving steadily for months. Industrial output jumped in January after surging in December by the most in five years. Auto sales are booming. Consumer confidence has reached its highest point in a year. Even the housing market is showing signs of turning around.
"The economy is finally starting to gain some steam, with consumers and businesses more optimistic about prospects in 2012," said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers.
On Friday, the government will issue the jobs report for February. Economists expect it to show that employers added a net 210,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate remained 8.3 percent.
The AP survey collected the views of two dozen private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators. Among their forecasts:
— Americans will save gradually less and borrow more, reversing a shift toward frugality that followed the financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession.
— Obama deserves little or no credit for declining unemployment. Only one of the 19 economists who answered the question said Obama should get "a lot" of credit. They give most of the credit to U.S. consumers, who account for about 70 percent of economic growth, and businesses.
— The economy has begun a self-sustaining period in which job growth is fueling more consumer spending, which should lead to further hiring.
— European leaders will manage to defuse their continent's debt crisis and prevent a global recession. But the economists think Europe's economy will shrink for all of 2012.
— The economy will grow 2.5 percent this year, up from the economists' earlier forecast of 2.4 percent. In 2011, the economy grew 1.7 percent.
The brighter outlook for jobs follows five straight months of declining unemployment. Employers added more than 200,000 net jobs in both December and January. The unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly three years.
One reason the rate has fallen so fast is that fewer out-of-work Americans have started looking for jobs. People out of work aren't counted by the Labor Department as unemployed unless they're actively seeking jobs.
Many economists have been surprised that the stronger economy hasn't led more people without jobs to start looking for work. If many more were looking, the unemployment rate would likely be higher.
Manufacturers have been hiring more consistently than other employers. Moutray expects factory output to rise 4 percent this year, better than in 2011. Manufacturers will have to continue hiring to keep up with demand, he said. That will help lower the unemployment rate to 8 percent by Election Day, he predicts.
"Manufacturers are relatively upbeat about production this year," Moutray said. That will require expanding factories and buying more machinery.
"All that plays into a better year than some people might have been expecting," he added.
The economists forecast that employers will add nearly 1.9 million jobs by Election Day, up from their December projection of nearly 1.8 million.
But Mike Englund of Action Economics is among those who noted that the declining unemployment is due, in part, to fewer people seeking work. Millions of those out of work remain too discouraged to start looking again, or, in the case of many young adults, haven't begun to do so.
"Most of this recent drop in the unemployment rate is due to a mass exodus" from the work force, Englund said.
The economy still has about 5.5 million fewer jobs than it did before the recession began in December 2007.
Still, the falling unemployment rate appears to be raising the public's view of Obama's economic stewardship. In an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 48 percent said they approved of how Obama was handling the economy, up 9 points from December. And 30 percent of Americans described the economy as "good" — a 15-point jump from December and the highest level since the AP-GfK poll first asked the question in 2009.
The U.S. economy remains under threat from Europe's debt crisis. But those concerns have eased, the AP survey showed.
Several economists credited the European Central Bank's move to provide unlimited low-interest loans to banks with helping prevent an international crisis
"Time fixes all wounds," said Marty Regalia, chief economist at the U.S Chamber of Commerce. "Europe didn't come apart at the seams, and we haven't fallen into the abyss. Every day ... it becomes a little less likely that it will happen."
___
AP Economics Writer Derek Kravitz contributed to this report.
Well, filmmaker Dan Abrams, Science Channel host Josh Zepps and Second City ETC founder Jeff Michalski have decided it’s time to stop crying about the economic crisis and recession ![[cnbc explains]](/CNBCexplainsicon1.gif){kind=small}
— and start laughing. They’re working on a mockumentary (think “Spinal Tap”) about the economic crisis called “False Profit.” But wait, don’t answer yet. You also get — an investment opportunity! Between them, they’ve worked with some of the most famous names in comedy, from Stephen Colbert to Robin Williams, but they’ve decided that YOU are the one to fund this project.They’ve launched a campaign on Kickstarter.com to raise money for the film. If they get $50,000, they’re totally doing it. (If they don’t, they’ll probably blow the money on cheeseburgers and hair products.) The Kickstarter page includes a trailer for the movie that includes narration in a voice that sounds like Dana Carvey doing George Bush (so read this in that voice): 2.8 trillion dollars …gone. Lehman and Bear Stearns … wiped out. Entire neighborhoods … foreclosed. Europe … breaking apart. And as the world crumbles, everyone is asking one question: “Who’s to blame?” The answer, as it turns out, is Eugene Kramer, a simple Iowa farmer who brought his folksy wisdom to Wall Street at an entry-level trading job in 2004. From the credit crash to the auto bailout, from the euro crisis to Occupy Wall Street, Eugene Kramer caused it all — and now it’s up to him to fix it.If you pledge $10 or more, you get a special digital download before the official DVD is released. At the $25 level, you get a special edition DVD/Blu-ray before the DVD release AND the digital download. For $50, you get all that AND the chance to attend a special online premier (are sequins still appropriate for that? what's the protocol for an online premier?!), plus access to several live streaming workshops on comedy with Michalski. They don't want to be around you until you reach the $100 level, where you get all that AND two tickets to a live screening. And for $250, you get four tickets, blah blah blah, AND an invite to the after-party. (Now we're talking.) You go $500, you also get an "associate producer" credit and at $2,000 or more, you get an "executive producer" credit.We’ve all been burned by some bad investment choices during the past few years, so it’s understandable if some investors are a little skittish. I mean, how can we know for sure they’re not the Bernie Madoffs of comedy and this is nothing more than a Ponzi film that you could have an executive producer credit on that could actually land you interviews with the FBI, SEC and Justice Department?!They assuage any concerns on their Kickstarter page, describing the project as a “gleefully absurdist farce,” in the vein of “Arrested Development” and “Best in Show.” Well, when you put it that way, it sounds better than any of the investments we’ve made in the past few years. Jimmy, hand me my wallet! And, scene. Disclaimer: Due to SEC regulations concerning qualified investments, Kickstarter and the aforementioned filmmakers are unable to sell equity or profit points on this project. So, you will have to be happy with the DVD, producer credit, etc., depending on the investment package you choose. Disclaimer, part deux: Both of Abrams's parents are corporate lawyers.More From CNBC.com: Email us at document.write("");document.write("ponyblog"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');or drop a line in the comment box below. 
Boulder, Colorado-based Gnip and DataSift, based in the U.K. and San Francisco, are licensed by Twitter to analyze archived tweets and basic information about users, like geographic location. DataSift announced this week that it will release Twitter data in packages that will encompass the last two years of activity for its customers to mine, while Gnip can go back only 30 days."Harvesting what someone said a year or more ago is game-changing," said Paul Stephens, director of policy and advocacy for the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse in San Diego. As details emerge on the kind of information being mined, he and other privacy rights experts are concerned about the implications of user information being released to businesses waiting to pore through it with a fine-tooth comb."As we see Twitter grow and social media evolve, this will become a bigger and bigger issue," said Graham Cluley, senior technology consultant for British-based Internet security company Sophos Ltd. "Online companies know which websites we click on, which adverts catch our eye, and what we buy ... increasingly, they're also learning what we're thinking. And that's quite a spooky thought."Twitter opted not to comment on the sale and deferred questions to DataSift. In 2010, Twitter agreed to share all of its tweets with the U.S. Library of Congress. Details of how that information will be shared publicly are still in development, but there are some stated restrictions, including a six-month delay and a prohibition against using the information for commercial purposes.That's where DataSift comes in. More than 700 companies are on a waiting list to try out its offering, DataSift CEO Rob Bailey said in an interview with Reuters. Those who buy the data will be able to see tweets on specific topics and even isolate those views based on geography. Bailey, who is based in San Francisco, said the effect is something like holding a huge number of sporadic focus groups on brands or products.For instance, Coca-Cola [COKE Loading... () 
] could look at what people in Massachusetts are saying about its Coke Zero, or Starbucks [SBUX Loading... () 
Warren Buffett writes in his annual letter to shareholders that the company's board is "enthusiastic" about a person it has chosen to eventually take over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.But Buffett does not name that person, saying only that it's "an individual to whom they have had a great deal of exposure and whose managerial and human qualities they admire." There are also "two superb back-up candidates."Previously Buffett has said there were three internal candidates for the job and that the board knew who it would go to if Buffett, 81-years old, suddenly died or became incapacitated. Buffett predicts that "when a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire's prospects will remain bright." He doesn't expect this to happen soon: "Do not, however, infer from this discussion that Charlie and I are going anywhere; we continue to be in excellent health, and we love what we do."Buffett implies that new portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler will eventually take over Buffett's role as chief investment officer, writing that they have "the brains, judgment and character to manage our entire portfolio when Charlie (Munger) and I are no longer running Berkshire."Housing in 'Depression'Warren Buffett says America's housing sector "remains in a depression of its own" but will eventually recover as America continues to create "more households than housing units."In the meantime, however, Buffett writes that the company's housing-related units continue to "sputter."He admits that his prediction a year ago that housing's recovery would probably begin within "a year or so" was "dead wrong."Buffett writes that the housing market's continued weakness is "the major reason a recovery in employment has so severely lagged the steady and substantial comeback we have seen in almost all other sectors of our economy."Admits 'Big' MistakeIn his letter, Buffett admits to making a "big mistake" when he spent about $2 billion "a few years back" buying Energy Future Holdings bonds. It's a Texas electric utility with "prospects tied to the price of natural gas, which tanked shortly after our purchase and remains depressed."
Berkshire wrote down that investment by $1 billion in 2010 and another $390 million in 2011 and may wind up wiping out almost all of the remaining $878 million in carrying value.Buffett writes that "in tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman."Share RepurchasesBuffett says Berkshire's previously announced share buyback plan resulted in just $67 million of purchases over a few days in September, as the stock price quickly topped its pre-determined upper limit of 110 percent of book value.Buffett writes that "given the opportunity, we will likely repurchase stock aggressively at our price limit or lower" but "we have no interest in supporting the stock and our bids will fade in particularly weak markets."Wants IBM Shares to 'Languish'Buffett devotes several paragraphs to one of his favorite themes: investors who will be buying in the future should be happy, not sad, when stock prices fall.
] as an example. He says the company will probably spend $50 billion or so over five years to repurchase shares. As a result, "We should wish for IBM's stock price to languish" over that time period.
© 2012 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Photo: Chip Simons | Workbook Stock | Getty ImagesThere are lots of ways to measure the health of the economy—consumer spending, sentiment, productivity, home sales. And now - teeth. The Tooth Fairy isn't delivering like she used to. According to The Original Tooth Fairy Poll, the average tooth bagged $2.10 under the pillow in 2011, down 17 percent from $2.52 in 2010 (and a whole lot more than I ever got!). Delta Dental, which has conducted the poll since 1998, says this is one of the largest declines it's ever seen, and that may not be a good for the stock market. "In seven of the past 10 years, the trend in average giving has tracked with movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average." What does this tell me? The Tooth Fairy is underwater in her mortgage and sunk all her teeth into Netflix shares [NFLX Loading... () 
The good news, the Tooth Fairy still visited 90 percent of homes in the U.S. in 2011. However, while the national average was $2.10 a tooth, Delta Dental says the most common reward was still $1, an amount the Tooth Fairy used to bring to my house when my kids were losing their teeth back in the late '90s. Fifteen years of little movement in the preferred buck-per-tooth tells me that if there was a Tooth Fairy ETF, it would not be a good investment. Like so many other indicators, this one shows that improving the economy is like pulling teeth. Questions? Comments? Funny Stories? Email document.write("");document.write("funnybusiness"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');