Google Rebrands Android Market, Google Music as 'Play'

Google said Tuesday that it rebranded its Android Market, Google Music, and its online eBookstore as a single brand, Google Play.

Over the next few days, Google will upgrade its Android Market app to Google Play, the company said in a blog post. Likewise, Google Play Music, Google Play Books, and Google Play Movies will become the names used by Google's music, books, and movie storefronts, the company said.

The rebranding won't be consistent on a worldwide basis. For example, in Canada and the U.K., Google said it will offer movies, books and Android apps; in Australia, books and apps; and in Japan, movies and apps. Everywhere else, Google Play will be the new home for just Android apps, the company said.

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Nokia 808 Pure View to arrive to the market on the May 7th

The great sensation of the Mobile World Congress 2012 and winner of the best mobile at the event is set to arrive to the public on the May 7th.

The Nokia 808 Pure View, that made a huge impact on the mobile fan community with his 41 Mpixels camera sensor, should arrive to the markets in the next 2 months according to the site Mobilefun. Is not yet clear which markets it will arrive first but it has been advanced during the MWC 2012 event that it will have a price of 450 Euros before taxes.

The interest on this phone has been growing from the day that it was presented and Nokia should expect that it will be well received in the market.

[Via]

View the original article here

Nokia 808 Pure View to arrive to the market on the May 7th

The great sensation of the Mobile World Congress 2012 and winner of the best mobile at the event is set to arrive to the public on the May 7th.

The Nokia 808 Pure View, that made a huge impact on the mobile fan community with his 41 Mpixels camera sensor, should arrive to the markets in the next 2 months according to the site Mobilefun. Is not yet clear which markets it will arrive first but it has been advanced during the MWC 2012 event that it will have a price of 450 Euros before taxes.

The interest on this phone has been growing from the day that it was presented and Nokia should expect that it will be well received in the market.

[Via]

View the original article here

Is the End Near for Three-Year-Old Bull Market?

Don't trust the stock market. The rally won't last. Stocks are on a short-lived sugar high. The gains, engineered by government bailouts and super-low interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve , are artificial.

The bull market that started on March 9, 2009, turns three on Friday.

That's what the skeptics on Wall Street have been saying since Day One of the current bull market, which was born on March 9, 2009, the day stocks finally stopped falling after the biggest and scariest plunge this generation of investors has ever seen.

Well, the skeptics have been wrong — so far.

The baby bull nobody believed in, the one that has earned little respect despite posting a 103 percent gain, the one that grew up in the shadow of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, turns three on Friday.

But despite a résumé that includes accomplishments such as being the first bull market to gain 100 percent in its first three years and the seventh-best percentage gainer of all time, this one enters its fourth year with still-skeptical investors asking the same question: Can it last?

"There are a lot of nervous investors who are still not buying into this rally," said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. A clear sign of the anxiety is reflected in the flow of funds into mutual funds and exchange traded funds. In this bull market as of January 2012, investors have stashed roughly $261 billion in stock funds and $708 billion in more-conservative bond funds, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), the mutual fund industry's trade group.

The steep fall and subsequent rebound of the stock market caught many investors by surprise. After tumbling nearly 57 percent from its October 2007 all-time high of 1565 to a low of 676 in March 2009, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has doubled in value in the past three years, climbing as high as 1,374 on March 1. The massive move erased all but 12 percent of the losses suffered in the last market downturn, the worst since the 1930s. In the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from a peak of 14,164, to a low of 6,547 before barreling back above 13,000 last week for the first time since May 2008.

Current DateTime: 08:48:30 08 Mar 2012
LinksList Documentid: 44817528Today, investors will welcome any signs of stability. More and more, the financial well-being of Americans is tied to how their personal retirement accounts perform in an increasingly volatile market that is driven by the perceived health of the economy and the confidence level on Main Street.

Over the past 20 years, the number of U.S. households investing in stock and bond markets via mutual funds has more than doubled from 23.2 million to 52.3 million, according to the ICI. More than 90 million people — nearly a third of the U.S. population — invest in mutual funds.

So Americans have become more invested, literally and figuratively, with the ups and downs of the markets. Indeed, just as fears of a double-dip recession in the U.S. have been fading recently amid a steady, incoming batch of better economic data, and a worst-case outcome to Europe's debt crisis seems to have been taken off the table, fresh worries have emerged to give investors pause.

There is a sense that it will take some kind of shock to end the rally. Potential bull killers:

1. Gas Price Shock

Investors fear that sticker shock at the pump could create stock market and economic turmoil if tensions over Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities lead to a military confrontation and supply disruption. Iran is believed to be covertly trying to develop a nuclear weapon, and Israel might be considering a pre-emptive military strike.

"A major curve ball can come from Iran," said financial planner Jacob Gold, author of "Financial Intelligence: Getting Back to Basics After an Economic Meltdown." Any showdown with Iran would likely be bearish.

"If someone tries to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities, it would throw the world into turmoil," said David Fondrie, senior portfolio manager at Heartland Funds.

Rising gas prices create a considerable drag on the economy, because the extra expense acts like a tax on consumers and siphons cash from other discretionary purchases.

Every 25-cent rise in a gallon of gas reduces other consumer spending by $25 billion a year and lowers economic growth by 0.2 percentage points, Deutsche Bank [DB  Loading...      ()   ] says. The average price of a gallon of gas is now $3.76, up 28 cents from a month ago, according to AAA. So if gas rises to $4 — like it has in three states already — consumer spending would take a roughly $50 billion hit.

"An average pump price of $5 would have a serious effect on confidence and create headwinds for the economy," noted Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo [WFC  Loading...      ()   ] Advisors.

2. Dysfunctional US Politics

Election uncertainty is another wild card. Is there more political gridlock ahead? Can lawmakers finally agree on a plan to reduce the nation's swelling deficit and get the nation's fiscal house in order? Will there be another 11th-hour standoff this fall over raising the federal debt limit? Will lawmakers extend the Bush tax cuts, which expire at the end of 2012? If the tax cuts are not extended, expect a drag on the economy, said Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners.

Perhaps more worrisome is the warning from Robert Rodriguez, CEO of money-management firm First Pacific Advisors: "If we don't start on a fiscal restructuring in this country by the end of next year, it is quite likely that between 2014 and 2016 we could experience something as big as Europe is going through today."

3. Inflation and Interest Rate Fears

A big plus for the financial markets has been the low interest rate environment fostered by the Fed and its chairman, Ben Bernanke. The steady low rate has nudged investors into riskier assets, such as stocks, in search of bigger returns. But the downside of the easy-money policy is a possible sharp rise in inflation . And inflation is an enemy of financial assets, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. If the inflation rate, which is hovering around 2 percent, goes well above the current level, the market reaction might not be pretty.

"If inflation gets out of control there will be a violent reaction in the bond market and at the Fed," Paulsen warns. If the Fed starts to raise rates and bond investors sell and yields rise to compensate for higher inflation, the economy could slow, he says. That would make it harder and more expensive for the U.S. to finance its deficit, and stocks would likely suffer.

4. Economic Slowdown in China

If China's growth engine slows, the ripple effect could be felt globally. China this week lowered its growth outlook to 7.5 percent from 8 percent, where it has been since 2005. Slower growth there could hurt companies and countries that export commodities such as steel, concrete and oil to China.

5. Europe Debt Woes Resurface

For now, the threat of Greece defaulting on its debt — and the potential for a banking crisis and financial contagion spreading throughout the euro zone and beyond — has eased, thanks to a recent deal struck between Greece and central bankers, finance ministers, and creditors in Europe. The European Central Bank's move to provide 1 percent loans to banks in Europe has acted as a key backstop in stemming the crisis.

But the larger structural problems of too much government debt and too little growth haunting many European economies persist. Markets will likely be dodging potential euro zone risks for years to come.

"Europe could unravel again," said Carmine Grigoli, chief investment strategist at Mizuho Securities USA.

Headwinds notwithstanding, by historical standards this 36-month-old bull is entering the later stages of its life span. The average duration of bull markets dating back to 1932 is roughly four years, according to InvesTech Research. That means this bull still has a shot at reaching its fourth birthday without suffering a bear market — or 20 percent decline — that would mark the end of its run.

Ironically, the celebration of the bull's third birthday coincides with a stock market that is showing signs of rally fatigue. The upward rise in stock prices has hit a wall. Since hitting key milestones, such as Dow 13,000, the market has stalled. Case in point: On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market suffered its worst drop of the year and first daily decline of more than 1 percent since December.

The combination of a loss of momentum following the S&P 500 index's nearly 25 percent rally since early October and the emergence of fresh obstacles to consider has many Wall Street money managers, analysts, investment strategists and financial advisers calling for a pullback or correction .

Bob Centrella, managing partner at Forza Investment Advisory, sent a note to his clients this week warning of a shallow pullback of 3 percent to 5 percent. But he also warned of a bigger correction if tensions between Israel and Iran escalate or if Europe's debt crisis worsens.

"If war erupts in the Middle East, look out," he warned.

A major correction is what would put Bart Ruff, 48, a marketing brand manager from Lederach, Pa., in a stock-buying mood. But for now, he feels the market is due for a tumble. "I think the market is riding on hope," Ruff said. "Housing, jobs, Europe, politics. Things aren't stable."

David Wright, managing director of Sierra Investment Management, is even more bearish. "After a three-year rally, the market is extended, tired and overdone," Wright said. He said a pullback of 25 percent or more is possible.

But Wright and the other skeptics are in the minority. The general consensus is that, despite strong odds that a pullback will occur, the bull market is alive and well.

The bullish bet is based on the belief that the economic and jobs recovery will surprise to the upside. Optimists point to the fact that stocks are still selling at attractive prices relative to their earnings potential. Bulls also expect lawmakers to come together and take the needed steps to reduce the nation's debt load. The Fed's pledge to keep short-term interest rates at roughly zero percent until mid-2014 is seen as a boost for stocks.

"I think there's some toothpaste left in the tube," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO-Harris Private Bank.

So how much does the bull have left in its tank?

Plenty, said Laszlo Birinyi, market seer at Birinyi Associates. "S&P 1,700!!!" is the title of his super-bullish March 2012 market report. That's almost 26 percent higher than Wednesday's close of 1353. In fact, he said, "If — if — the market is right and the economy surprises us on the upside" this bull could be as durable as the five-year bull market that began in 1982 and the decade-long rally that started in 1990.

Lewis Altfest, a financial adviser at Altfest Personal Wealth Management, said the market could post 10 percent annual returns for the next five years. "I don't think it is too late to get in," he said.

The mood of the market going forward might be determined by the government's February jobs report to be released Friday, added Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs [GS  Loading...      ()   ] Asset Management. If the economy, which has produced more than 200,000 new jobs each of the past two months, can produce close to the roughly 250,000 jobs a month economists are expecting, investors might firm up the belief that this economy is healing. "Friday's number could get people believing that the U.S. is in a sustainable recovery," he said.

Grigoli, the strategist with Mizuho, said stocks offer far more value than low-yielding bonds and that a rally could last three more years. "You can't fund retirement earning 0 percent on your money," he said.

Wendy Hunt of Cincinnati couldn't agree more. The 39-year-old mother of two and her husband have been rewarded for sticking with stocks through the crisis and riding them back up.

"We're fully invested in stocks," she said. "We've stayed close to Apple [AAPL  Loading...      ()   ] and Berkshire Hathaway [BRK.A  Loading...      ()   ] . We're super happy with how our consistent faithfulness to the market has paid off."

This story first appeared in USA Today.

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Swap Talks Over Greece Could Test the Market

The financial system could face a test this week as industry officials debate a provision of the Greek bailout.

PNC | Brand X Pictures | Getty Images

Greece is preparing to overhaul its bonds next month, a restructuring that could potentially prompt payouts on credit-default swaps , the financial instruments that protect against losses on debt. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will meet on Thursday to decide whether a certain aspect of the deal will make those payments necessary.

If parties have to make good on the credit-default swaps, the situation could send shivers through the market. An important and long-planned measure that aims to strengthen the derivatives market is not yet in place, raising questions about how the financial system will react if the credit-default swaps have to pay out.

In the financial crisis of 2008, banks feared that their trading partners might not be able to meet such obligations on derivatives and other financial arrangements. The situation set off a chain reaction that paralyzed global markets until governments and central banks provided enormous financial support.

To prevent a similar disaster from happening again, finance ministers in the United States and Europe committed in 2009 to move derivatives like credit-default swaps onto clearinghouses. These organizations, if they work properly, can sharply reduce the chances that a large bank will not make good on their contracts.

But credit swaps that pay out if a European country defaults are not yet centrally cleared. Instead, banks remain largely responsible for making sure the various parties can meet their obligations. While financial firms have taken steps to ensure counterparties can pay, some industry participants say the market would be far stronger if central clearing existed now for the swaps.

John Sprow, chief risk officer at Smith Breeden Associates, a fund management firm, said regulators could have used the relative calm in the markets over the last two years to reduce risks in places like the credit-default swap market. “There’s no doubt, that, by having central clearing, you’d mitigate counterparty risk,” he said.

Current DateTime: 01:37:02 29 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 22528753A small number of credit-default swaps have moved onto clearinghouses, but not swaps on European sovereign debt , even though they are traded relatively frequently and lie at the heart of the Continent’s debt maelstrom.

The reason for the delay in Europe appears to reside with the Financial Services Authority, the British financial regulator. The regulator has yet to approve credit-default swaps on sovereign debt for clearing. The American-based IntercontinentalExchange [ICE  Loading...      ()   ] has said it is in a position to start doing so through a European arm. IntercontinentalExchange started clearing default swaps on Latin American government debt last year after it received approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The British regulator declined to comment.

Clearinghouses have played a major role in strengthening other parts of the derivatives market, like futures. When executing trades through a clearinghouse, market participants have to back up their deals with adequate collateral in case they suddenly cannot make payments. As a result, when a potentially destabilizing event happens, banks are less likely to panic, because they believe money they are owed on trades will be paid.

With Greece moving toward default, all eyes are on how credit-default swaps will behave. One worry is that they may not pay out, even when bondholders suffer a loss. While the Greek bailout package could force investors to take a 70 percent haircut on the country’s bonds, the restructuring was set up as a potentially voluntary exchange, an outcome that would not prompt the credit-default swaps.

But a voluntary exchange looks increasingly unlikely. Greece is preparing to use legal means to force all qualifying bondholders to accept a haircut.

Now, industry officials will have to decide whether the credit-default swaps will pay out.

This week, an undisclosed entity officially asked the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to debate whether a particular feature of the Greek debt exchange could activate the swaps. The association said Tuesday that a committee would consider this question on Thursday.

One part of the Greek exchange being examined allows the European Central Bank to avoid a haircut on the Greek bonds it holds, even though other creditors take a hit. In effect, the committee has to decide whether this constitutes the type of “subordination” for non-ECB bondholders that would prompt a payout on Greek credit-default swaps. Subordination describes the process of relegating a creditor’s claim below that of others.

Rating agencies have already said that the European Central Bank’s move amounts to economic subordination for bondholders. But some lawyers don’t think it will cause the default swaps to pay out, since subordination is narrowly defined in the swaps’ contracts.

“I can’t see any legal event that would also be a credit event,” said Simon Firth, a partner at Linklaters in London. A required payout would most likely happen if a bond issuer actually changed the terms of some existing bonds to make them subordinate, he said, and he added that shielding the central bank from losses did not appear to do this.

Still, some analysts say they believe that such a move would undermine the credibility of credit-default swaps. “It may result in investors deciding it’s just too uncertain to enter into CDS,” said Peter Green, a partner with Morrison & Foerster in London.

This story originally appeared in The New York Times

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Market Positives Trump High Gas Prices: Homebuilders

New U.S. single-family home sales fell in January, but an upward revision to the prior months' data and a drop in the supply of properties on the market added to growing signs of a budding recovery in the housing sector.

Sales of newly built homes are still stumbling along at historically low levels, but builders claim they are beginning to see the light at the end of a very long tunnel.

Sales may not be surging back, but in some of the better local economies, buyer interest is.

We saw it at open houses over the President's Day weekend, and it's starting to show up on line even more dramatically. Virginia-based NewHomesGuide.com, the website of New Homes Guide magazine, saw a 46 percent jump in unique visitors from December 2011 to January 2012 and a 47 percent jump from one year ago. Page views were up 59%.

"We always see a seasonal jump in January," said Publisher, Leslie Stritmatter in a press release, "but the increases from the same period last year show this to be a much more significant bounce. I'm very hopeful that this is a sign of consumer confidence returning to the markets.

Consumer sentiment is improving. "Right now the improving labor market trumped rising gasoline prices in influencing confidence, which is good in that new jobs and wages can help cushion the blow of an ever rising cost of living," says analyst Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak.

When it comes to housing, the same may be true of high affordability, improving employment, better confidence, record-low mortgage rates and lower-priced homes; they all trumprising gasoline prices.

"We don't think there's going to be a big impact from gas prices because we have so many forces taking us to recovery," says Richard Kettler of Kettler/Forlines Homes.

Kettler says they have seen a substantial increase recently in the number of visits to his homes, which largely straddle the suburbs and exurbs of Washington, DC.

"The attitude of the home buyer is much better, they're more excited," he adds. He also notes there is now suddenly more interest in larger homes, not McMansions, but moving from the 2 thousand square foot range to 3000.

Higher gas prices may not hit buyer demand overall, but they will affect some choices.

"We are more sensitive today because of the economic scenario we are still recovering from," says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. "From a housing perspective, this impacts the exurban communities, as an increased cost of living will reduce demand to buy homes, and these are the same communities hit the hardest by the housing crash anyway."

A study by the Federal Reserve in 2010 found that a 10 percent increase in gas prices reduces home construction by 10 percent after four years in locations with a long average commute time, compared with other locations.

The effect of higher gas prices on home buyers will depend on how long the spike lasts. If consumers think it's temporary, they won't factor it as much into their decision.

There are, however, continuing obstacles to the new home market. Sales are still barely above where they were last year, and last year was the worst on record for the nation's builders. This despite all the stimulus in the market.

And as I'm writing this, Mr. Kettler just came out of his office, grumbling that one of his sales is being held up by an appraisal that came in too low.

Questions?  Comments?  document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

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Market Inconsistencies Can Be Explained: El-Erian

One of the challenges investors face today is how to reconcile seemingly conflicting messages coming from different markets. Is Dow 13,000 consistent with a 10 year U.S. Treasury at 2% and gold at almost $1,800? Is $125 Brent oil consistent with cyclically low implied volatility in many market segments, as well as widening CDS spreads for Middle Eastern oil producers?

These are but some examples of what some market participants regard as inconsistencies (and what some policymakers feel is "typical" market irrationality). Yet they are rooted in four factors that investors need to understand well in order to navigate what is a remarkably fluid outlook for markets and, to use Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's phrase, "an unusually uncertain" global economy:

Multi-speed world: While emerging countries are slowing and Europe is slipping into recession, the U.S. economy continues to heal. You see this in the recent numbers for the labor market, housing, confidence and other indicators. The net result is a rather complex and perplexing picture for the world economy as a whole. Importantly, some believe that the improvement is sustainable and, accordingly, the U.S. can regain its role as a locomotive for the globe; others feel that it is just a matter of time before external headwinds once again interfere with the country's growth momentum, similar to what happened in the last two years (and especially as the U.S. is yet to sufficiently address impediments that stand in the way of large and durable improvements in employment, housing and income distribution).

Impact of policies: Unusual policy activism on the part of central banks - including floored interest rates and balance sheets that have ballooned to a previously unthinkable 20% of GDP for the Federal Reserve and 30% for the European Central Bank — has inserted multiple wedges between valuations and the underlying fundamentals. It has also altered liquidity conditions and affected the functioning of certain markets. Moreover, as the real economy is unable to properly absorb all the liquidity injections, the spillover effects are consequential.

Difficulties in pricing geopolitical risk and bimodal distributions: Markets understandably find it very difficult to properly assign a risk premium to complex developments in Iran and Syria - two countries that, given regional network effects, could emit a series of cross-border waves and, in the process, could greatly weigh on the oil market and, therefore, production costs, consumption trends and global economic activity. They also find it hard to price what is now a bimodal outlook for Europe. The result is a differentiated approach among market segments, with those closest to the phenomenons reacting differently from others.

Short-termism: As many investors remain on the sideline, and as the obsession for daily and weekly performance continues to dominate, short-termism is a major driver of market action. Momentum overrides fundamentals as investors "stay in the trade" until they see overwhelming evidence that the "trend has turned." This takes market differences to extremes.

All this is real and will be with us for some time, though the net impact will vary as the relative weight of the four individual influences fluctuates. Some investors will opt for tactical positioning that is subject to rapid changes. Others will prefer to focus strategically on the long-term.

Those investors who combine a deep understanding of the destination with an agile handling of the journey stand to benefit most.

Dr. Mohamed El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, the bond investment house and the author of, "When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change."

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'Greece Fatigue': Market Hopes Bailout Plan Will Work

Now that Greece has some semblance of a default plan in place, investors might be able to start concentrating again on other financial market influences.

Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty ImagesProtersters gather in front of the Greek parliament under rainfall during the 48-hours anti-austerity strike.Maybe.

News that the troubled Club Med outpost had put together a deal with the vaunted Troika appeared to give a lift to the already-surging U.S. stock market, which pushed past the psychological 13,000 barrier in intraday trading for the first time in four years.

Or maybe it was continued enthusiasm about the mild economic recovery, or the improvement in earnings.

In any event, markets began to provide indication that the financial world may not revolve around Greece, at least for a little while.

"There is a lot of Greece fatigue," says Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for Action Economics in San Francisco. "We're really tired of this news story and the headlines. But it's not out of the picture."

While many traders parsed 2011 action in the either-or function of risk-on or risk-off, they may as well have been talking about Greece-on or Greece-off. If it looked as though the Troika — the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Commission — had developed yet another rescue plan, markets were up. If it looked like Greece was ready to fail and bring the rest of the developed world with it, markets fell.

With a plan that at least stops the bleeding for a while, hopes are that the market can get back to its normal worries of war in the Mideast, the political turmoil in Washington, and the precarious state of the economic rebound.

"No matter what happens I think that all Greece events are priced into the markets," says Peter J. Tanous, president of Lepercq Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C. "No 'unknown unknowns' here. The U.S. market will continue to be primarily influenced by the economic recovery."*

Like many others, he sees a full Greece default and exit from the euro zone as inevitable. Until then, though...

"Greece still matters," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, forex strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Vamvakidis maps out several scenarios in which investors, while seeking to move past the sovereign debt crisis for the time being, will have to revisit things in the future.

"Greek euro exit could have systemic implications for the eurozone," he writes in a research note. "The eurozone could be stronger without its weakest link, which is Greece in our view, but breaking of the eurozone’s weakest link still poses substantial risks."

In particular, if Greece exits and renews the drachma it could lead to "a bank run, uncontrollable inflation, and potentially severe social unrest."

"Allowing such a scenario to unfold in Greece while the rest of the region is still in the beginning of their reform process could jeopardize their chances of success and trigger renewed funding pressures, as a euro exit becomes possible."

Ultimately, as Vamvakidis sees it, this could be just the latest in a series of last chances for Greece to get its act together.

"In this contest, we expect the Troika to try to give Greece one more chance with a new program, although whether they will succeed is more uncertain than ever," he says. "If the rest of the region has enough time to adjust, an eventual failure of the new Greek program may not have broader market implications. In the meantime, however, we expect markets to continue being concerned about a disorderly Greek default, with negative EUR [euro] implications."

Indeed, the early verdict closer to the Greek mainland wasn't so good.

European equity markets fell modestly, while Greek stocks specifically dropped more than 5 percent.

Bob Janjuah, the longtime bearish fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities, says he has lumped Greece into the "self-serving political debacle" file, with the possibility that central bank intervention will keep financial markets afloat well into the future, but with dire long-run circumstances.

"Depending on how long we can continue to kick the can down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability," Janjuah says.

Interestingly, Janjuah has a Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX  Loading...      ()   ] target as low as 800 or even 700 in a worst-case scenario, but says the index could zoom higher first, perhaps even to the "high 1500s."

And Charles Biderman, CEO at the TrimTabs market research firm, says he expects this supposed Greek solution to meet with a similar fate as the others.

"Amid the good news on the emerging-markets front, we can’t ignore the simmering troubles in Greece, where a settlement on austerity measures appears unlikely to be of much help to the stock market, if past rescue measures are any guide," he writes.

"Going back to 2010, each major attempt to bail out Greece has been followed by significant declines in stock prices, and with the markets in the midst of a three-month rally, it seems likely that investors will cash in their profits."

*(Major disclosure: Peter and I co-authored Debt, Deficits and the Demise of the American Economy (Wiley, 2011) that correctly foresaw the Greek default and the ensuing ramifications it will have across Europe and, ultimately, the U.S.)

Questions? Comments? Email us atdocument.write(""); document.write("NetNet"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');

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'Greece Fatigue': Market Hopes Bailout Plan Will Work

Now that Greece has some semblance of a default plan in place, investors might be able to start concentrating again on other financial market influences.

Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty ImagesProtersters gather in front of the Greek parliament under rainfall during the 48-hours anti-austerity strike.Maybe.

News that the troubled Club Med outpost had put together a deal with the vaunted Troika appeared to give a lift to the already-surging U.S. stock market, which pushed past the psychological 13,000 barrier in intraday trading for the first time in four years.

Or maybe it was continued enthusiasm about the mild economic recovery, or the improvement in earnings.

In any event, markets began to provide indication that the financial world may not revolve around Greece, at least for a little while.

"There is a lot of Greece fatigue," says Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for Action Economics in San Francisco. "We're really tired of this news story and the headlines. But it's not out of the picture."

While many traders parsed 2011 action in the either-or function of risk-on or risk-off, they may as well have been talking about Greece-on or Greece-off. If it looked as though the Troika — the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Commission — had developed yet another rescue plan, markets were up. If it looked like Greece was ready to fail and bring the rest of the developed world with it, markets fell.

With a plan that at least stops the bleeding for a while, hopes are that the market can get back to its normal worries of war in the Mideast, the political turmoil in Washington, and the precarious state of the economic rebound.

"No matter what happens I think that all Greece events are priced into the markets," says Peter J. Tanous, president of Lepercq Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C. "No 'unknown unknowns' here. The U.S. market will continue to be primarily influenced by the economic recovery."*

Like many others, he sees a full Greece default and exit from the euro zone as inevitable. Until then, though...

"Greece still matters," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, forex strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Vamvakidis maps out several scenarios in which investors, while seeking to move past the sovereign debt crisis for the time being, will have to revisit things in the future.

"Greek euro exit could have systemic implications for the eurozone," he writes in a research note. "The eurozone could be stronger without its weakest link, which is Greece in our view, but breaking of the eurozone’s weakest link still poses substantial risks."

In particular, if Greece exits and renews the drachma it could lead to "a bank run, uncontrollable inflation, and potentially severe social unrest."

"Allowing such a scenario to unfold in Greece while the rest of the region is still in the beginning of their reform process could jeopardize their chances of success and trigger renewed funding pressures, as a euro exit becomes possible."

Ultimately, as Vamvakidis sees it, this could be just the latest in a series of last chances for Greece to get its act together.

"In this contest, we expect the Troika to try to give Greece one more chance with a new program, although whether they will succeed is more uncertain than ever," he says. "If the rest of the region has enough time to adjust, an eventual failure of the new Greek program may not have broader market implications. In the meantime, however, we expect markets to continue being concerned about a disorderly Greek default, with negative EUR [euro] implications."

Indeed, the early verdict closer to the Greek mainland wasn't so good.

European equity markets fell modestly, while Greek stocks specifically dropped more than 5 percent.

Bob Janjuah, the longtime bearish fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities, says he has lumped Greece into the "self-serving political debacle" file, with the possibility that central bank intervention will keep financial markets afloat well into the future, but with dire long-run circumstances.

"Depending on how long we can continue to kick the can down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability," Janjuah says.

Interestingly, Janjuah has a Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX  Loading...      ()   ] target as low as 800 or even 700 in a worst-case scenario, but says the index could zoom higher first, perhaps even to the "high 1500s."

And Charles Biderman, CEO at the TrimTabs market research firm, says he expects this supposed Greek solution to meet with a similar fate as the others.

"Amid the good news on the emerging-markets front, we can’t ignore the simmering troubles in Greece, where a settlement on austerity measures appears unlikely to be of much help to the stock market, if past rescue measures are any guide," he writes.

"Going back to 2010, each major attempt to bail out Greece has been followed by significant declines in stock prices, and with the markets in the midst of a three-month rally, it seems likely that investors will cash in their profits."

*(Major disclosure: Peter and I co-authored Debt, Deficits and the Demise of the American Economy (Wiley, 2011) that correctly foresaw the Greek default and the ensuing ramifications it will have across Europe and, ultimately, the U.S.)

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'Greece Fatigue': Market Hopes Bailout Plan Will Work

Now that Greece has some semblance of a default plan in place, investors might be able to start concentrating again on other financial market influences.

Louisa Gouliamaki | AFP | Getty ImagesProtersters gather in front of the Greek parliament under rainfall during the 48-hours anti-austerity strike.Maybe.

News that the troubled Club Med outpost had put together a deal with the vaunted Troika appeared to give a lift to the already-surging U.S. stock market, which pushed past the psychological 13,000 barrier in intraday trading for the first time in four years.

Or maybe it was continued enthusiasm about the mild economic recovery, or the improvement in earnings.

In any event, markets began to provide indication that the financial world may not revolve around Greece, at least for a little while.

"There is a lot of Greece fatigue," says Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for Action Economics in San Francisco. "We're really tired of this news story and the headlines. But it's not out of the picture."

While many traders parsed 2011 action in the either-or function of risk-on or risk-off, they may as well have been talking about Greece-on or Greece-off. If it looked as though the Troika — the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Commission — had developed yet another rescue plan, markets were up. If it looked like Greece was ready to fail and bring the rest of the developed world with it, markets fell.

With a plan that at least stops the bleeding for a while, hopes are that the market can get back to its normal worries of war in the Mideast, the political turmoil in Washington, and the precarious state of the economic rebound.

"No matter what happens I think that all Greece events are priced into the markets," says Peter J. Tanous, president of Lepercq Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C. "No 'unknown unknowns' here. The U.S. market will continue to be primarily influenced by the economic recovery."*

Like many others, he sees a full Greece default and exit from the euro zone as inevitable. Until then, though...

"Greece still matters," says Athanasios Vamvakidis, forex strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Vamvakidis maps out several scenarios in which investors, while seeking to move past the sovereign debt crisis for the time being, will have to revisit things in the future.

"Greek euro exit could have systemic implications for the eurozone," he writes in a research note. "The eurozone could be stronger without its weakest link, which is Greece in our view, but breaking of the eurozone’s weakest link still poses substantial risks."

In particular, if Greece exits and renews the drachma it could lead to "a bank run, uncontrollable inflation, and potentially severe social unrest."

"Allowing such a scenario to unfold in Greece while the rest of the region is still in the beginning of their reform process could jeopardize their chances of success and trigger renewed funding pressures, as a euro exit becomes possible."

Ultimately, as Vamvakidis sees it, this could be just the latest in a series of last chances for Greece to get its act together.

"In this contest, we expect the Troika to try to give Greece one more chance with a new program, although whether they will succeed is more uncertain than ever," he says. "If the rest of the region has enough time to adjust, an eventual failure of the new Greek program may not have broader market implications. In the meantime, however, we expect markets to continue being concerned about a disorderly Greek default, with negative EUR [euro] implications."

Indeed, the early verdict closer to the Greek mainland wasn't so good.

European equity markets fell modestly, while Greek stocks specifically dropped more than 5 percent.

Bob Janjuah, the longtime bearish fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities, says he has lumped Greece into the "self-serving political debacle" file, with the possibility that central bank intervention will keep financial markets afloat well into the future, but with dire long-run circumstances.

"Depending on how long we can continue to kick the can down the road in order to protect the eurozone banks, the eurozone will be consigned to an extended period of weak growth, which in turn means ever decreasing debt sustainability," Janjuah says.

Interestingly, Janjuah has a Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX  Loading...      ()   ] target as low as 800 or even 700 in a worst-case scenario, but says the index could zoom higher first, perhaps even to the "high 1500s."

And Charles Biderman, CEO at the TrimTabs market research firm, says he expects this supposed Greek solution to meet with a similar fate as the others.

"Amid the good news on the emerging-markets front, we can’t ignore the simmering troubles in Greece, where a settlement on austerity measures appears unlikely to be of much help to the stock market, if past rescue measures are any guide," he writes.

"Going back to 2010, each major attempt to bail out Greece has been followed by significant declines in stock prices, and with the markets in the midst of a three-month rally, it seems likely that investors will cash in their profits."

*(Major disclosure: Peter and I co-authored Debt, Deficits and the Demise of the American Economy (Wiley, 2011) that correctly foresaw the Greek default and the ensuing ramifications it will have across Europe and, ultimately, the U.S.)

Questions? Comments? Email us atdocument.write(""); document.write("NetNet"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');

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