Showing posts with label Rising. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rising. Show all posts

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Rents Keep Rising, Even as Housing Prices Fall

The housing market remains a potent drag on the economy as home prices continue to slip, foreclosed homes fill some neighborhoods and millions of construction workers scramble for jobs.

But one group is sitting pretty: landlords.

Unlike home prices, rents have been rising, up 2.4 percent in January from a year earlier, according to recent data, not adjusted for inflation, released by the Labor Department.

With few rental buildings erected over the last few years, available units are going fast. Nationwide, the apartment vacancy rate is down to 5.2 percent, its lowest level in more than a decade, according to the research firm Reis Inc.

Rent increases are greatest in places like San Francisco, Austin, Texas, and Boston, where technology companies in particular are hiring, as well as in New York City and the District of Columbia. But cities like Chicago and Seattle, where house prices are still declining quite sharply, have had rental increases, too.

“We are more of a renter nation than we have been for a while,” said Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of real estate at the Columbia University Business School.

Economists suggest favorable conditions for landlords will continue for at least a year, with employment gradually rising and construction of new apartments remaining constrained.

As job growth has begun to accelerate in recent months, young people are starting to move out of their parents’ homes or away from shared rooms and into their own rentals.

Families who might previously have bought homes are also staying in rentals longer. They may be waiting for the housing market to hit bottom or finding it difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Many others remain uncertain about their job prospects and wary of the obligations of ownership.

When Charles Griffith moved with his wife and two children to Orlando, Fla., last fall, they chose a new two-bedroom apartment for $1,140 a month. They left a four-bedroom house they had bought a decade ago in Antioch, Calif. His brother-in-law has moved in and taken over the mortgage payments.

Mr. Griffith, who works as a supervisor for Southwest Airlines [LUV  Loading...      ()   ] , and his wife, a customer service representative for the airline, are enjoying the flexibility and convenience of renting, as well as amenities like a pool. “We kind of like the situation now of not having to be under so much pressure,” said Mr. Griffith, 40, adding that the family may eventually buy in Orlando. But “with the economy and the airline industry, that factors into us thinking maybe we should hold off for a while.”

The home ownership rate has been falling from its peak of 69.4 percent in 2004, according to census data. By the fourth quarter of 2011, it was down to 66 percent. That means about two million more households are renting, said Kenneth Rosen, an economist and professor of real estate at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.

Not all those people are choosing apartments, of course. Some are moving into single-family homes left vacant by foreclosures. Eager to capitalize on the trend, investors are scooping up some houses at a deep discount and leasing them to tenants who have lost their own homes.

Several prominent hedge funds and private equity firms have recently announced plans to invest in distressed properties and convert them to rentals. And earlier this month, the government solicited applications from investors interested in buying pools of foreclosed properties held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.

Still, it is in apartments, not houses, where renters are feeling the most competition.

Although many families crushed by the recession have doubled up and plenty of underemployed 20-somethings are living with their parents, some young people are finally getting their own space. Nearly 60 percent of job gains in the last two years have gone to people who are 20 to 34, a crucial rental group, according to an analysis of Labor Department data by G. Ronald Witten, a consultant to apartment companies.

During the economic downturn, apartment developers retrenched. The number of new apartments completed fell from 284,200 in 2006 to less than half that number in 2011, according to census data.

The limited supply is pushing up prices in some markets. In San Francisco, rents jumped close to 5 percent last year, according to Reis, and increases averaged 3 percent in Austin and New York. Landlords have also been withdrawing incentives like a free month’s rent.

Liz Brent and Matt Mochizuki moved into a studio apartment a year ago in the Mission District in San Francisco for $1,395 a month. Now they want more space.

Ms. Brent, 26, makes costumes and is working as a barista at a cafe where customers leave big tips. Mr. Mochizuki, 27, has a steady job making custom metal work for a design studio. They are budgeting $1,800 a month in rent.


Current DateTime: 08:10:34 26 Feb 2012
LinksList Documentid: 22528753But at an open house for an apartment billed as a one-bedroom, they found a studio with an awkward layout and bad light. More than 40 people were in line, many ready to hand over a check.

“That’s what the market is like now,” Ms. Brent said of their fruitless search. “That’s how many people showed up for this tiny apartment with no windows.”

Some rental markets remain soft, like Atlanta and Las Vegas, the epicenter of the housing bust. Orlando, too, might seem an unlikely place for rental strength. The unemployment rate, at 9.7 percent, is higher than the national average, and home prices slipped 4.6 percent last year, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index.

Yet Ric Campo, chief executive of Camden Properties, a real estate investment trust that owns apartment buildings, said rental business was brisk at its LaVina development. Since the office for the 420-unit complex opened last summer, more than half the apartments have rented.

That’s “a faster rate than we’ve ever seen in Orlando,” Mr. Campo said. The company has raised the base rent on a two-bedroom apartment to $1,080, from $995 a month.

Many now wonder about a more profound shift among future buyers. Matt Byford, a 24-year-old litigation consultant in Chicago, acknowledges that low interest rates and low prices favor buying. But he says he is renting and in no hurry to buy, because he doesn’t expect much to change soon.

Brad Forrester, chief executive of the ConAm Group, which manages about 50,000 apartments in the western United States, says, “I think it’s going to be interesting to see whether there’s been a fundamental sociological shift in that 20- to 35-year-old cohort, where they literally say ‘this American dream just doesn’t work for me.’ ”

This story originally appeared in The New York Times

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Obama: No 'Silver Bullet' to Halt Rising Gas Prices

President Obama says there is no easy answer to the problem of rising energy prices and he's dismissing Republican solutions as little more than gimmicks.

President Barack Obama

"We know there's no silver bullet that will bring down gas prices or reduce our dependence on foreign oil overnight," Obama said Saturday in his weekly radio and Internet address. "But what we can do is get our priorities straight and make a sustained, serious effort to tackle this problem."

Oil prices are approaching last year's highs as tensions increase over Iran's nuclear program. The rise pushed gasoline prices Friday to a national average of $3.65 a gallon, the highest ever for this time of year. A spike in gas prices is normal in spring, but it came earlier than usual this year in large part because of world fears that the growing confrontation with Iran will crimp oil supplies. Iran is the world's third-largest crude supplier.

Rising oil prices weigh on the economy, pushing leisure and business travel costs higher. Every 1-cent increase in the price of gasoline costs the economy $1.4 billon, analysts say.

Obama said Republicans have one answer to the oil pinch: drill.

"You know that's not a plan, especially since we're already drilling," Obama said, echoing his remarks earlier in the week. "It's a bumper sticker."

Obama is pushing what he calls an "all-of-the-above" approach to the problem of limited energy resources, meaning an attempt to seek out alternative energy sources while reducing consumption of traditional fuels.

In the Republican address, Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison blamed the rise in gasoline prices partly on the Obama administration, which she said has blocked some potential new sources of oil and gas.

"We can't slow down global demand for oil and gas, but we can do a lot more here at home to assure that we have the energy we need and to halt skyrocketing costs," she said. "President Obama's policy has resulted in an unprecedented slowdown in new exploration and production of oil and gas."

For all the political claims, economists say there's not much a president of either party can do about gasoline prices. Certainly not in the short term. But it's clear that people are concerned — a new Associated Press-GfK poll says 7 in 10 Americans find the issue deeply important — so it's sure to be a political issue through the summer.

The price of gasoline, which is made from crude oil, has soared with oil prices. The national average jumped by nearly 12 cents per gallon in a week, with state averages above $4 per gallon in California, Alaska and Hawaii.

At $3.65 per gallon, gasoline is still below last year's high of $3.98 and the record $4.11 set in 2008.

© 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

HP, Dell Watch Rising China Labor Costs for Apple

Hewlett-Packard and Dell are keeping a close eye on a big jump in wages for workers that assemble Apple's iPhone in China, and could be forced to nudge up prices for their own products if labor costs keep rising.

Major contract manufacturer Foxconn Technology Group — which counts Apple [AAPL  Loading...      ()   ] , HP [HPQ  Loading...      ()   ] , Dell [DELL  Loading...      ()   ] , Nokia [NOK  Loading...      ()   ] and Motorola Mobility [MSI  Loading...      ()   ] among its major clients — last week raised wages for its workers in China by 16-25 percent, the third hike since 2010.

The wage increases reflect a rising trend across the Chinese electronics manufacturing industry and could pressure already wafer-thin margins at the likes of HP and Dell.

HP Chief Executive Meg Whitman said rising wages in China could eventually have a ripple  effect across the world electronics industry.

"If Foxconn's labor cost go up, their product cost to us will go up," she told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

"But that will be an industry-wide phenomenon and then we have to decide how much do we pass on to our customers versus how much cost do we absorb."

Dell, which on Tuesday reported a 18 percent slide in quarterly profit, said it was also keeping an eye on wages in China.

"It's not clear to us how that will play out in terms of our costs," Dell Chief Financial Officer Brian Gladden told Reuters. "It remains to be seen how that flows through the overall supply chain. We will continue to watch that."

But Gladden said labor costs are a "very, very small piece" of the total cost of its products.

To companies like HP and Dell that specialize in creating ultra-efficient supply chains and cutting costs to preserve razor-thin profit margins, any rising expense can be trouble.

"HP and Dell's PCs could cost a bit more. Those companies have been trying to pass on extra costs. It may or may not work. Their products aren't as differentiated as Apple's," said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Sterne Agee in San Francisco.

Apple's main manufacturer of iPads and iPhones, Foxconn is already in the spotlight because of its poor labor conditions, with reports of employees committing suicide.

Foxconn's February wage hike was announced days after Apple said a U.S. non-profit labor group had begun an "unprecedented" inspection of working conditions at its main contract manufacturers, including Foxconn.

Foxconn's wage increase comes as Chinese electronics manufacturers face higher costs to attract workers.

The government of Shenzhen, a freewheeling boomtown bordering Hong Kong, announced in January it was increasing its minimum wage by 13.6 percent despite warnings from factory owners the move could deal another blow to exporters already reeling from a sharp drop in Western orders.

Taiwan-based Foxconn said the pay of a junior level worker in Shenzhen, southern China, had risen to 1,800 yuan ($290) per month and could be further raised above 2,200 yuan if the worker passed a technical examination. It said that pay three years ago was 900 yuan a month.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Iran Fuels Oil-Price Rally—And Prices Could Keep Rising

Rising tensions around Iran’s nuclear program, coupled with prospects for a better global economy, carried oil prices above $106 Tuesday for the first time since May.

Strait of Hormuz, Iran, navyEbrahim Noroozi | AFP | Getty ImagesIranian Navy boats take part in maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say oil could continue to rise, but how much depends on a variety of factors, including whether the sanctions against Iran result in supply shortages, which are as yet not a concern. The April contract for West Texas intermediate [CLCV1  Loading...      ()   ] was above $106 in late trading, and Brent crude [LCOJ2  Loading...      ()   ] , the international oil benchmark, was above $121 per barrel.

China’s announcement over the weekend that it would reduce reserve requirements for banks in a bid to spur lending gave a boost to risk assets, including oil, as investors see a new round of easier policy. Also helping was the euro zone agreement to fund another bailout for Greece, removing the potential of a Greek default for now.

At the same time, Iran this past weekend said it would cut off oil supplies to France and Britain. The two countries were already cutting back, and Europe has vowed to end all existing supply contracts by July. The European embargo prohibits any new contracts with Iran.

“The oil market has been balancing downside demand risk from Europe against downside supply risk from Iran. The Greek deal over the weekend eased some of the demand-side fears while saber rattling from Tehran has kept supply-side concerns front and center. And oil prices have surged as a result,” notes Trevor Houser, partner with the Rhodium Group.

Rising oil prices also run the risk of bringing about their own decline. Analysts say at about $4 a gallon, consumers will cut back as much as possible on gasoline purchases. Gasoline use has been in decline, and was already down a surprising 8 percent last week.

The national average for unleaded regular Tuesday was $3.57 per gallon, according to AAA, and analysts expect to see gasoline at $4 and some even see $5, heading into the summer driving season.

Even without Iran, Houser said he has been expecting higher oil prices as Europe moves past Greece and China’s economy outperforms some reduced expectations. “We’re more bullish on the euro zone and Chinese growth and have been for the past six months, and we see higher oil prices even in the absence of Iran,” he said.

The question, however, is whether gasoline prices spike to a point where they wound the consumer. “At $4 a gallon is really where you see demand take a hit. The big concern is whether a nascent U.S. recovery is kneecapped in the summer by gasoline prices,” Houser said.

But with Iran as an unknown, the oil market has been rising, and traders have been betting prices will be even higher as the year goes on. “It looks as if the market has broken out pretty strongly here,” said Gene McGillian, analyst with Tradition Energy. “You have to immediately think, if things keep dovetailing on the positive side, we could push to the area where we topped out last year — at around $114,” said McGillian. He said there could first be resistance at about $110 per barrel.

“I know there seems to be some supply concerns after Tehran said they going to stop selling the British and French, but I don’t think they were selling too much there anyway,” said McGillian.

John Kilduff of Again Capital said the market is factoring bigger increases into the second half of the year. “You’re seeing anywhere from $125 to $200, but mostly it’s clustered around $125 to $150 (per barrel) in the calls,” he said.

“There could be another leg higher for crude. It depends on what happens with the IAEA inspectors. If they leave in any kind of diplomatic huff that would be good for several dollars higher,”John Kilduff
Founding Partner, Again CapitalAnother factor traders are watching is the visit to Iran by representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency, planned for Tuesday.

“There could be another leg higher for crude. It depends on what happens with the IAEA inspectors. If they leave in any kind of diplomatic huff that would be good for several dollars higher,” Kilduff said. It was an IAEA report in November that was the catalyst for the latest round of Western governments’ sanctions. The report suggested Iran’s nuclear program was weapons oriented.

Adding to the tensions around Iran is rising speculation that Israel will take action on its own to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs, said this weekend that such an air strike by Israel was “not prudent” and would be “destabilizing.”

The U.S. has also warned Iran about its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil.

McGillian said, when it comes to Iran, the question is how much more oil can Saudi Arabia add to the market. “The Saudis have been reassuring the market they have spare capacity they can bring on line. I think that’s what people are watching for. Is there spare supply from Saudi Arabia?” he said.

Under the U.S. sanctions, financial institutions that deal with the Iranian central bank would be prohibited from dealing with the U.S. financial system. That would impact Japan and Korea, which traders believe are already finding other sources. Analysts said a big unknown is what India and China might ultimately do about importing Iranian crude.

“You’ve got players like India and China taking a wait and see approach about making a decision on whether to increase Iranian supply,” said Houser.

Follow Patti Domm on Twitter: @pattidomm

Questions?  Comments? Email us atdocument.write("");document.write("marketinsider"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');


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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Iran Fuels Oil-Price Rally—And Prices Could Keep Rising

Rising tensions around Iran’s nuclear program, coupled with prospects for a better global economy, carried oil prices above $106 Tuesday for the first time since May.

Strait of Hormuz, Iran, navyEbrahim Noroozi | AFP | Getty ImagesIranian Navy boats take part in maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say oil could continue to rise, but how much depends on a variety of factors, including whether the sanctions against Iran result in supply shortages, which are as yet not a concern. The April contract for West Texas intermediate [CLCV1  Loading...      ()   ] was above $106 in late trading, and Brent crude [LCOJ2  Loading...      ()   ] , the international oil benchmark, was above $121 per barrel.

China’s announcement over the weekend that it would reduce reserve requirements for banks in a bid to spur lending gave a boost to risk assets, including oil, as investors see a new round of easier policy. Also helping was the euro zone agreement to fund another bailout for Greece, removing the potential of a Greek default for now.

At the same time, Iran this past weekend said it would cut off oil supplies to France and Britain. The two countries were already cutting back, and Europe has vowed to end all existing supply contracts by July. The European embargo prohibits any new contracts with Iran.

“The oil market has been balancing downside demand risk from Europe against downside supply risk from Iran. The Greek deal over the weekend eased some of the demand-side fears while saber rattling from Tehran has kept supply-side concerns front and center. And oil prices have surged as a result,” notes Trevor Houser, partner with the Rhodium Group.

Rising oil prices also run the risk of bringing about their own decline. Analysts say at about $4 a gallon, consumers will cut back as much as possible on gasoline purchases. Gasoline use has been in decline, and was already down a surprising 8 percent last week.

The national average for unleaded regular Tuesday was $3.57 per gallon, according to AAA, and analysts expect to see gasoline at $4 and some even see $5, heading into the summer driving season.

Even without Iran, Houser said he has been expecting higher oil prices as Europe moves past Greece and China’s economy outperforms some reduced expectations. “We’re more bullish on the euro zone and Chinese growth and have been for the past six months, and we see higher oil prices even in the absence of Iran,” he said.

The question, however, is whether gasoline prices spike to a point where they wound the consumer. “At $4 a gallon is really where you see demand take a hit. The big concern is whether a nascent U.S. recovery is kneecapped in the summer by gasoline prices,” Houser said.

But with Iran as an unknown, the oil market has been rising, and traders have been betting prices will be even higher as the year goes on. “It looks as if the market has broken out pretty strongly here,” said Gene McGillian, analyst with Tradition Energy. “You have to immediately think, if things keep dovetailing on the positive side, we could push to the area where we topped out last year — at around $114,” said McGillian. He said there could first be resistance at about $110 per barrel.

“I know there seems to be some supply concerns after Tehran said they going to stop selling the British and French, but I don’t think they were selling too much there anyway,” said McGillian.

John Kilduff of Again Capital said the market is factoring bigger increases into the second half of the year. “You’re seeing anywhere from $125 to $200, but mostly it’s clustered around $125 to $150 (per barrel) in the calls,” he said.

“There could be another leg higher for crude. It depends on what happens with the IAEA inspectors. If they leave in any kind of diplomatic huff that would be good for several dollars higher,”John Kilduff
Founding Partner, Again CapitalAnother factor traders are watching is the visit to Iran by representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency, planned for Tuesday.

“There could be another leg higher for crude. It depends on what happens with the IAEA inspectors. If they leave in any kind of diplomatic huff that would be good for several dollars higher,” Kilduff said. It was an IAEA report in November that was the catalyst for the latest round of Western governments’ sanctions. The report suggested Iran’s nuclear program was weapons oriented.

Adding to the tensions around Iran is rising speculation that Israel will take action on its own to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs, said this weekend that such an air strike by Israel was “not prudent” and would be “destabilizing.”

The U.S. has also warned Iran about its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that carries about 20 percent of the world’s oil.

McGillian said, when it comes to Iran, the question is how much more oil can Saudi Arabia add to the market. “The Saudis have been reassuring the market they have spare capacity they can bring on line. I think that’s what people are watching for. Is there spare supply from Saudi Arabia?” he said.

Under the U.S. sanctions, financial institutions that deal with the Iranian central bank would be prohibited from dealing with the U.S. financial system. That would impact Japan and Korea, which traders believe are already finding other sources. Analysts said a big unknown is what India and China might ultimately do about importing Iranian crude.

“You’ve got players like India and China taking a wait and see approach about making a decision on whether to increase Iranian supply,” said Houser.

Follow Patti Domm on Twitter: @pattidomm

Questions?  Comments? Email us atdocument.write("");document.write("marketinsider"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write('');


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