Showing posts with label Tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tuesday. Show all posts

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Gingrich pins hopes Tuesday on big Georgia win

ATLANTA (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is banking on a big win in Georgia Tuesday to keep his fading hopes of winning the nomination alive.

"It looks now like in Georgia we will carry the state by four or five times the margin that Romney had in Michigan," Gingrich told supporters in Alcoa, Tenn., Monday.

The former House speaker was hoping that momentum from an expected win in the state he represented in Congress for 20 years would propel his campaign, which has struggled since his lone victory in the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary.

But he sent signals he would continue by campaigning in Alabama Tuesday before the votes in Georgia are counted. Likewise, Gingrich plans to begin airing ads this week in Alabama and Mississippi. Both states hold their primaries Mar. 13.

Gingrich leads by wide margins in Georgia polls. He trails former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Tennessee, although the race there is tight and Gingrich was closing the gap in some surveys.

"We have the chance to win a stunning victory here in Tennessee," Gingrich told 200 supporters near Knoxville.

Gingrich campaigned doggedly across Tennessee Monday, while a key supporter, former candidate Herman Cain, campaigned for him in Oklahoma before joining him at a rally in Chattanooga.

Gingrich touted himself as the only candidate experienced with the issues facing the nation, drawing on his four years as House speaker during the Clinton administration.

"The biggest difference in this race between the three major contenders is one of us has consistently shown leadership," Gingrich told about 150 people in the upstairs conference room of a Food King grocery store in Kingsport, Tenn.

Gingrich has been helped by four political action committees, including one financed largely by billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson.

Yet Gingrich sought to portray a win in Georgia as a triumph in light of heavy spending on anti-Gingrich attack ads by the pro-Romney political action committee Restore Our Future.


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Can Romney seal the deal on Tuesday?

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

That leaves North Dakota and Alaska, where Romney has odds around 75 percent, and Tennessee, where Santorum leads with 57 percent of the vote.

There are 419 delegates at stake Tuesday, and Romney could take the vast majority if he meets or exceeds expectations. The former Massachusetts governor already has an 86.4 percent chance to be the Republican nominee for president, and he will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination regardless of the outcome on Super Tuesday. The question is whether he can effectively seal the deal Tuesday, or leave Santorum enough delegates to hang on to even an imaginary claim to the nomination.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

More popular Yahoo! News stories:

• Twitter users lobby Limbaugh advertisers to drop business (or not) over Fluke controversy

• Poll: Santorum slightly ahead in Ohio before Super Tuesday

• Mitt Romney wins the Washington state caucuses

Want more? Visit The Signal blog, connect with us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter. Handy with a camera? Join the Yahoo! News Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.


View the original article here

Super Tuesday challenge for Santorum in Ohio

CUYAHOGA FALLS, Ohio (AP) — Rick Santorum is facing a crucial test in Ohio, where he's drawing upon his working-class background and underdog image to try to stop Mitt Romney from scoring a pivotal victory in Super Tuesday's premier contest.

An unapologetic social conservative, Santorum has cast the race in Biblical terms: He's David vs. Romney's Goliath. Even that "is probably a little bit of an understatement," Santorum said Monday.

The former senator from neighboring Pennsylvania has a shell of a campaign in Ohio, with no state headquarters and a barebones staff. In Romney he faces a challenger who enjoys a massive cash advantage and a political machine that's produced high-stakes victories in other states when his front-runner status was in doubt.

Santorum expects to be competitive in several states Tuesday — Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia among them. But Ohio voters, perhaps more than any others among the 10 states voting on this Super Tuesday, may shape the fate of his campaign.

A Santorum victory could reshuffle the Republican contest, sending a powerful message that Romney's grasp on his party's nomination is by no means assured. A loss in Ohio, where Santorum has devoted much of his time and resources, may have lasting consequences.

Santorum will spend Tuesday night watching returns in Steubenville, an eastern Ohio town just a 90-minute drive from his own Pennsylvania hometown.

On Monday, Santorum largely set his aggressive social agenda aside and focused on his plans to revitalize the nation's manufacturing sector, while reminding voters across Ohio about his family's blue-collar roots. But as public polls showed a tightening race, Santorum's team also sought to lower expectations.

"This fight will continue and it's going to go on for a long time after this," a Santorum supporter, state Attorney General Mike DeWine, said on the eve of the election. "We're going to fight state to state. I think Rick is going to win ... but it's going to be a close race."


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Can Romney seal the deal on Tuesday?

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

That leaves North Dakota and Alaska, where Romney has odds around 75 percent, and Tennessee, where Santorum leads with 57 percent of the vote.

There are 419 delegates at stake Tuesday, and Romney could take the vast majority if he meets or exceeds expectations. The former Massachusetts governor already has an 86.4 percent chance to be the Republican nominee for president, and he will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination regardless of the outcome on Super Tuesday. The question is whether he can effectively seal the deal Tuesday, or leave Santorum enough delegates to hang on to even an imaginary claim to the nomination.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

More popular Yahoo! News stories:

• Twitter users lobby Limbaugh advertisers to drop business (or not) over Fluke controversy

• Poll: Santorum slightly ahead in Ohio before Super Tuesday

• Mitt Romney wins the Washington state caucuses

Want more? Visit The Signal blog, connect with us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter. Handy with a camera? Join the Yahoo! News Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.


View the original article here