His support dropped among this critical constituency just before the new year began and the presidential campaign got under way in earnest. But his standing with female voters is strengthening, polls show, as the economy improves and social issues, including birth control, become a bigger part of the nation's political discourse.
"Republicans are making a big mistake with this contraception talk, and I'm pretty sure that they are giving (the election) to Obama," says Patricia Speyerer, 87, of McComb, Miss., a GOP-leaning independent. "It's a stupid thing."
The recent furor over whether religious employers should be forced to pay for their workers' contraception is certainly a factor but hardly the only reason for women warming up to Obama again after turning away from him late last year.
An Associated Press-GfK poll suggests women also are giving the president more credit than men are for the country's economic turnaround.
Among women, his approval ratings on handling the economy and unemployment have jumped by 10 percentage points since December. Back then, a wide swath of Americans expressed anxiety over the nation's slow climb out of recession and anger at a government that couldn't agree on steps to speed things up.
Since then, the unemployment rate has kept declining, and Obama hasn't been shy about trumpeting it, and analysts say that drop may have resonated particularly with women.
For Obama, there is no more crucial constituency than women. They make up a majority of voters in presidential elections, and a bit more of them identify with his party. He would not be president today without topping Republican John McCain in that group in 2008. And Republicans would need to win a sizable share — more than about 40 percent — of female voters to beat him.
Though the economy remains the top concern among both women and men, an array of social issues — gay marriage, access to birth control and whether cancer research should be kept separate from the issue of abortion— have returned to the nation's political conversation since December. And both parties have snapped up those issues to awaken their staunchest supporters.
Republicans from Capitol Hill to the presidential campaign trail focused particularly on a requirement in Obama's health care law for some religious employers to pay for birth control. Obama then adjusted that policy by instead directing insurance companies to pay for birth control — and Democrats are running with a message that Republicans want to upend long-established rights for women.
"Women are used to making decisions and running their lives," said Linda Young, president of the National Women's Political Caucus, which favors abortion rights. "To hear their right to contraception questioned in 2012 is shocking, and it's gotten a lot of people's attention."
Republicans say the economy will again overtake that discussion and it will be clear the GOP offers families more once Republicans choose a nominee, turn their fire from each other to Obama and make their case on issues such as gas prices and the deficit.
"The economic indicators, we have to admit, are very slowly improving, and that is something that has always affected the female vote," said Rae Lynne Chornenky, president of the National Federation of Republican Women. "Until we get a candidate I don't think the full story can be told."
"People in both political parties are keeping this (cultural narrative) alive because they're trying to excite their bases," said Republican Brian Flaherty, who served as a Connecticut legislator for 15 years. "You can afford to have this attention in February on" reproductive issues.
An AP-GfK poll conducted Feb. 16-20 showed that on overall approval Obama has gained 10 percentage points among women since December, from 43 percent to 53 percent, even though his administration seemed to stumble over whether religious employers should be forced to pay for contraception.
Women also are the reason behind Obama's lead over Republican hopefuls Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum: In one-on-one matchups, Obama beats Romney 54 percent to 41 percent and tops Santorum 56 percent to 40 percent among women, but virtually ties each Republican among men. Women are Obama's to lose: They are more apt to identify with Democrats and give that party higher favorability than are men.
Over time, there hasn't been much shift in women's views of the Democratic Party, but views of the GOP have become more polarized since the AP last asked about the issue in January 2011. Thirty-nine percent of Republican women hold a "very favorable" view of the party, compared with 27 percent a year ago. At the same time, 57 percent of Democratic women now give the GOP a deeply unfavorable rating, the first time that figure has topped 50 percent.
Republicans insist their objections to Obama's policy on birth control coverage are about government infringing on the freedom of religion, not about contraception, which is supported by a broad majority of Americans.
But Santorum also says, as he has for years, that contraception conflicts with his Roman Catholic beliefs.
"Well, I'm a Roman Catholic, too," said Speyerer. She recalls that in 1940s New Orleans, where she was born and married, it was illegal to publish anything about birth control, "and I don't want to see that happen again."
Democrats already have sought to capitalize on that sentiment, holding a faux hearing last week with a single woman denied the chance to testify about contraception to a Republican-controlled House committee.
There will be more of that this week. Senate Democrats have agreed to debate a measure by Republican Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri that would allow health plans to deny coverage for any service that violates the sponsor's beliefs. And on Thursday, a coalition of women's groups called HERvotes is holding a news conference in Washington to protest the renewed questioning of long-established rights for women.
The AP-GfK poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults, including 485 women. Results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points. Among women, the margin of error is 6 points.
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Online:
www.ap-GfKpoll.com
Adam is a Wired Science reporter and freelance journalist. He lives in Oakland, Ca near a lake and enjoys space, physics, and other sciency things.
Highlight transcript below to create clipTranscript: Print | Email Go Click text to jump within videoThu 01 Mar 12 | 01:28 PM ET Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum tells CNBC's John Harwood he wants to cut taxes across the board, and he directed criticism towards his rival: "Mitt Romney is creating a very difficult environment for America to be prosperous," he says.
PNC | Brand X Pictures | Getty ImagesGreece is preparing to overhaul its bonds next month, a restructuring that could potentially prompt payouts on credit-default swaps ![[cnbc explains]](/CNBCexplainsicon1.gif){kind=small}
, the financial instruments that protect against losses on debt. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will meet on Thursday to decide whether a certain aspect of the deal will make those payments necessary.If parties have to make good on the credit-default swaps, the situation could send shivers through the market. An important and long-planned measure that aims to strengthen the derivatives market is not yet in place, raising questions about how the financial system will react if the credit-default swaps have to pay out.In the financial crisis of 2008, banks feared that their trading partners might not be able to meet such obligations on derivatives and other financial arrangements. The situation set off a chain reaction that paralyzed global markets until governments and central banks provided enormous financial support.To prevent a similar disaster from happening again, finance ministers in the United States and Europe committed in 2009 to move derivatives like credit-default swaps onto clearinghouses. These organizations, if they work properly, can sharply reduce the chances that a large bank will not make good on their contracts.But credit swaps that pay out if a European country defaults are not yet centrally cleared. Instead, banks remain largely responsible for making sure the various parties can meet their obligations. While financial firms have taken steps to ensure counterparties can pay, some industry participants say the market would be far stronger if central clearing existed now for the swaps.John Sprow, chief risk officer at Smith Breeden Associates, a fund management firm, said regulators could have used the relative calm in the markets over the last two years to reduce risks in places like the credit-default swap market. “There’s no doubt, that, by having central clearing, you’d mitigate counterparty risk,” he said.
] has said it is in a position to start doing so through a European arm. IntercontinentalExchange started clearing default swaps on Latin American government debt last year after it received approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The British regulator declined to comment.Clearinghouses have played a major role in strengthening other parts of the derivatives market, like futures. When executing trades through a clearinghouse, market participants have to back up their deals with adequate collateral in case they suddenly cannot make payments. As a result, when a potentially destabilizing event happens, banks are less likely to panic, because they believe money they are owed on trades will be paid.With Greece moving toward default, all eyes are on how credit-default swaps will behave. One worry is that they may not pay out, even when bondholders suffer a loss. While the Greek bailout package could force investors to take a 70 percent haircut on the country’s bonds, the restructuring was set up as a potentially voluntary exchange, an outcome that would not prompt the credit-default swaps.But a voluntary exchange looks increasingly unlikely. Greece is preparing to use legal means to force all qualifying bondholders to accept a haircut.Now, industry officials will have to decide whether the credit-default swaps will pay out.This week, an undisclosed entity officially asked the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to debate whether a particular feature of the Greek debt exchange could activate the swaps. The association said Tuesday that a committee would consider this question on Thursday.One part of the Greek exchange being examined allows the European Central Bank 
Facebook plans to increase its $2.5 billion credit line to help cover a major tax hit when employee stock awards vest shortly after it goes public, according to two sources familiar with the company's plans. The world's largest social media network, which boosted its borrowing capacity by two-thirds just six months ago, is taking advantage of its strong position to get more financing for its phenomenal growth, the sources said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly about such plans. A spokesman for Facebook declined to comment. "All these tax obligations are being created and you need cash to take care of it. You see this all the time but in this case it will be substantial," said Michael Moe of GSV Capital, which owns Facebook shares. "Having the cash to be able to take care of that makes a lot of sense. That would be the motivator of a larger credit facility." Facebook has said it plans to pay taxes on its employees' restricted stock units, or RSUs, when they vest six months after the company's initial public offering. The exact amount is likely to total billions of dollars, based on Facebook's stock price at the time. Helping employees cover tax on RSUs is relatively unusual and leaves the employer with a "very expensive obligation" that could increase if Facebook shares climb, said Bart Greenberg, a partner at law firm Haynes and Boone who advises start-up tech companies. "It could create such a large cash obligation that it eats up most of the credit facility," Greenberg added. "That facility may have been originally set aside for acquisition opportunities or working capital." Facebook said it may sell equity securities, tap its credit facility, use cash or a combination of these options to meet its tax obligation, according to its IPO filing. In February 2011, Facebook set up a $1.5 billion credit agreement with affiliates of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and Barclays Capital, the leading underwriters of the company's IPO. In September 2011, the borrowing capacity was increased $2.5 billion. "The golden rule of finance is that you get the money when you can, not when you need it," said Moe, who co-founded investment bank ThinkEquity. "Creating maximum flexibility will allow you to be efficient with your use of capital but also opportunistic when appropriate." Some other tech companies that recently went public have also arranged similar credit facilities. Zynga [ZNGA Loading... ()