Can Romney seal the deal on Tuesday?

We have held all along that Mitt Romney will be the Republican Party's nominee for president. Since his double win last week in Arizona and Michigan, his odds in the prediction markets have jumped above 80 percent. That's likely to go up again after Super Tuesday, since the most likely scenario has Romney winning 7 of the 10 states, Rick Santorum taking 2, and Newt Gingrich winning his home state of Georgia.

The question is whether voters in future primaries decide the race is effectively over after Tuesday and flock to Romney, or whether Santorum lives to fight another day in the polls. A big-enough night for Santorum could prolong his eventual defeat, since polls tend to be more short-sighted than markets. Here are the odds for tomorrow's individual elections:

We can predict with near certainty that Romney will win in Virginia (where only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot), his home turf of Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont, and Idaho. Gingrich likewise has odds of about 95 percent in Georgia.

Romney has 81.6 percent odds in the crown jewel, Ohio, though polls—which lag compared to markets—have him virtually tied with Santorum. (The odds swung significantly in his favor after last week's wins in Arizona and Michigan.) As we've noted before, this literally means that 1 out of 5 times, Santorum pulls off an upset win. Meanwhile, Santorum has 88.6 percent odds in conservative Oklahoma.

That leaves North Dakota and Alaska, where Romney has odds around 75 percent, and Tennessee, where Santorum leads with 57 percent of the vote.

There are 419 delegates at stake Tuesday, and Romney could take the vast majority if he meets or exceeds expectations. The former Massachusetts governor already has an 86.4 percent chance to be the Republican nominee for president, and he will still be the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination regardless of the outcome on Super Tuesday. The question is whether he can effectively seal the deal Tuesday, or leave Santorum enough delegates to hang on to even an imaginary claim to the nomination.

David Rothschild is an economist at Yahoo! Research. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot and email him at thesignal@yahoo-inc.com.

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Want more? Visit The Signal blog, connect with us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter. Handy with a camera? Join the Yahoo! News Election 2012 Flickr group to submit your photos of the campaign in action.

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Women win first Kabaddi World Cup

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota
5 March 2012 Last updated at 07:03 GMT India dominated the game from the start India has won the first women's Kabaddi World Cup championship, beating Iran 25-19 in a thrilling game played in Patna, in the state of Bihar.

India had the upper hand throughout the match and was 19-11 at half-time.

Kabaddi is a field sport which originated in India.

Two teams take turns to send a raider to the other's territory, or half, tag members of the opposing team, and return "home" without being blocked by defenders on the other side.

While he is "tagging" his opponents, the raider has to hold his breath and chant "kabaddi, kabaddi".

The final was played at the Patlipura sports complex on Sunday.

Earlier in the day, India beat Japan 60-21 while Iran defeated Thailand 46-26 in the semifinals to reach the final.

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Amazing time-lapse video captures the night sky

Temporal Distortion from Randy Halverson on Vimeo

Think you've seen the night sky? Not like this. Photographer Randy Halverson took months (when the weather was clear) to shoot the stars overhead of the White River in central South Dakota, Arches National Park in Utah, Canyon of the Ancients area of Colorado, and Madison, Wisconsin. He put it all together in a time-lapse video set to music by the out-of-this-world composer Bear McCreary, who wrote the moody soundtracks to "Battlestar Galactica" and "The Walking Dead."

Along with a star-filled sky, the photog caught the tail of a meteor and the northern lights. The score adds a dramatic and other-worldly counterpoint. Feast your eyes. Here, Halverson takes us through "Temporal Distortion." If you can't get enough of this amazing light show, check out the extended 23-minute version.

What made you think to do this?
I've been shooting time-lapse for over two years. I really just wanted to get some unique angles of the Milky Way; the aurora were mostly unexpected. On a few of the nights I was actually set up to shoot the Milky Way. When it showed up I had to turn the cameras to the north to shoot it. I contacted Bear McCreary last fall and asked him if he was interested in collaborating with me and doing the music for it. I thought his music would fit perfectly with it, so I held on to the footage until he had time to do it.

Seems like a great way to get people to appreciate astronomy who might not ordinarily be stargazers. Was that your goal?
My goal really was just to get some good Milky Way shots, but when I ended up getting the meteors, aurora, and other phenomena like airglow or noctilucent clouds, I thought it would make the video more interesting. I'm an amateur at astronomy myself, but I can always ask a real astronomer if I have questions about what I catch.

Have you done this before?
I've been shooting just time-lapse for over two years, but my most popular have been my last two: Tempest Milky Way and Plains Milky Way.

What is the technique?
I use Canon DSLR cameras and take still images, not video. The shutter is open for 20 to 30 seconds on most of the shots. This allows the sensor on the camera to gather more light than the eye can see and makes the stars, Milky Way, and aurora appear brighter than they are to the eye. I also have the camera mounted on a Stage Zero Dolly from Dynamic Perception. This motion-controlled rig moves the camera slightly between each exposure, and gives the camera the motion you see in the time-lapse. I then have to edit the thousands of still images together in a computer, to assemble it into a movie.

Are you surprised by the response?
Yeah, I am. I think music is really important on these videos, and I think Bear McCreary's music works really well with the video, and that helps.

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1 in 3 children drink too much juice: survey

Many young children — particularly those in low-income households — drink too much juice, according to a new survey.

More than a third of parents surveyed, and about half of parents with a yearly household income of less than $30,000, reported their 1- to 5-year-olds drink two or more cups of juice on a typical day.

That's twice the amount recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), which advices kids under age 6 drink just one serving of juice per day.

Too much juice puts kids at risk for health conditions such as childhood obesity and early tooth decay, the researchers said. Both of these conditions are more prevalent in low-income children.

"Parents may think juice is an easy way for their child to get a serving of fruit, but it's often difficult to pick out 100 percent fruit juice amid the sugar-sweetened juice drinks," said study researcher Sarah Clark, associate director of the Child Health Evaluation and Research Unit at the University of Michigan. (The AAP recommends that even 100 percent fruit juice is limited to one serving per day.)

Children from higher-income households were less likely to drink more than the recommended daily amount of juice, the survey showed. Only 23 percent of parents with household incomes of $100,000 or more reported that their children drink two or more cups of juice per day.

The researchers expressed concern that the survey also found that 35 percent of lower-income parents said that their child's doctor recommends juice. "This is an important message for health care providers as well as parents," Clark said. "Doctors need to be very specific in letting parents know that whole fruit is the best way to have a child get recommended servings of fruit."

The survey was conducted by the University of Michigan C.S. Mott Children's Hospital National Pollon Children's Health. The survey was administered to a nationally representative sample of 606 parents with a child ages 1 to 5.

Pass it on: Children under six should limit their juice consumption to one serving per day, according to the AAP.

This story was provided by MyHealthNewsDaily, a sister site to LiveScience. Follow MyHealthNewsDaily staff writer Twitter @MyHealth_MHND. Find us on Facebook.

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FBI: Man arrested in Las Vegas for 'scamming nuns'

ANNAPOLIS, Maryland (Reuters) - Maryland's governor plans to sign a bill making same-sex marriage legal later this week, his office said on Monday, while opponents were making plans to challenge the new law at the ballot box. The legislation, making Maryland the eighth state in the nation to legalize gay and lesbian nuptials, …

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Dozens arrested protesting California education cuts

SACRAMENTO, California (Reuters) - Dozens of protesters angry over fee hikes and budget cuts at California's public universities were arrested on Monday night during a boisterous but peaceful demonstration inside the state Capitol building.

The arrests capped a day in which hundreds of students and others marched on the statehouse and rallied outside the Capitol before many of the activists moved the demonstration inside the building, clogging hallways in and around the rotunda.

One group chanted, "No cuts, no fees. Education must be free," as they sat crossed-legged on the black-and-white tiled floor of the statehouse.

The California Highway Patrol, which provides security for the building, said the demonstrators had a permit to protest inside the Capitol until 5:30 p.m. local time, and then were ordered to leave.

Police warned the protesters seven times after the building closed at 6 p.m. that they faced arrest for trespassing if they failed to disperse, and officers moved in to begin taking the demonstrators into custody at about 7:30 p.m.

"We wanted to give them every opportunity," CHP Captain Andy Menard said, adding that the estimated 45 to 50 demonstrators arrested were all given one last chance to leave the building before they were taken into custody.

"The ones who didn't are going to jail," he said.

The demonstration drew words of support from Governor Jerry Brown, a Democrat, who issued a statement saying the protesters "are reflecting the frustration of millions of Californians who have seen their public schools and universities eroded year after year."

He urged public support for a ballot initiative in November calling for a temporary tax increase to raise additional revenues for public education in the state, which is facing a $9.2 billion budget shortfall.

Some of the demonstrators also sought to collect signatures for a petition to put a measure on the ballot that would impose an extra 1 percent tax on individuals with annual incomes of $1 million or more.

(Additional reporting by Adam Weintraub; Editing by Steve Gorman and Tim Gaynor)

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Ireland Vote on Euro Treaty Will Be Close: Economists

The beleaguered population of Ireland will take to the polls to vote on the new European Union treaty later this year – and could use the opportunity to register a protest vote against austerity.

Phillipe Sion | The Image Bank | Getty ImagesPrime Minister Enda Kenny announced on Tuesday that the country would hold a referendum on the treaty.

Ireland has a history of rejecting EU treaties in the first vote – which usually sees a lower turnout – before accepting them the second time around.

While the country has been hailed as a poster boy for austerity, and has staged a small recovery from the debt crisis, the economic situation is still far from perfect.

Unemployment is hovering around 14 percent, and mass emigration among young people has returned as the job market contracts.

There is still resentment that the previous government’s vow to guarantee deposits at the six main Irish banks helped cause the current problems.

The Irish people’s concerns about “the need for strong EU and international support for the economy” should help gain a majority vote for the treaty, Gillian Edgeworth, chief EEMEA economist at UniCredit, wrote in a note.

“However opposition is also set to be more vocal than in the past, with a clear risk that polls show a close outcome up until the eve of the vote,” she warned.

“The Irish people are very independent and will make up their own mind,” Lucinda Creighton, minister of state for European affairs, Ireland, told CNBC Wednesday. “People are quite confused on the detail of the fiscal compact, so we have a big task to provide adequate information to enable people to make up their minds.”

She added that she is “pretty confident” that the treaty, which is backed by Ireland’s two biggest political parties, will be passed.

Ireland’s low corporation tax, which has helped attract investment from multinationl corporations in recent months as the country’s cost of labor has declined, is viewed by many as key to its economic recovery. The treaty leaves national governments with responsibility for setting tax rates.

“The one big advantage that Ireland has got is that they don’t have to do the big structural reforms in terms of getting labor markets to work more effectively, and that’s why we are seeing their competitiveness adjusting more quickly than Greece and others,” Peter Westaway, chief economist, Europe at Vanguard Asset Management, told CNBC.

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